This is a good article in the Globest.com. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon estimates a 65% chance that a recession will happen in the U.S. economy (in this cycle). He also said there is a 35% to 40% chance of a soft landing in the next year or two. With the worst case being stagflation. The JPMorgan economists only see a 35% chance of a recession though. Whether or not a recession is called is now determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), not two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.